Key takeaways: McDonald's is wagering its growth hopes on the chicken and beverage categories, yet the numbers show it is losing consumer share to major rivals such as Chick-fil-A.

Data from market research firm Consumer Edge shows that coffee chains including Dutch Bros and Starbucks are also grabbing market share.

McDonald's growth plan includes launching hand-breaded chicken products while putting grilled chicken back on the menu.

A McDonald's chicken sandwich in Chicago, Illinois, on May 6, 2021. McDonald's is staking its next phase of growth on the chicken and beverage businesses. But the latest consumer spending data indicates the fast-food giant faces intense competition from specialist rivals in these areas.

At its September investor day, McDonald's set a goal of raising its global market share by another 1.5 percentage points each in the chicken and beverage categories by 2030. The company believes these two categories represent a major opportunity to expand beyond the beef category.

Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski said in an interview that the size of the two markets means enormous growth potential. "The chicken market is worth $130 billion and we currently hold about 20% share; the beverage market is about $230 billion and we hold 10%," Kempczinski said.

Compared with the $50 billion global beef market, where McDonald's has already reached a 40% share, the chicken and beverage businesses offer greater room for improvement.

But the new data shows that winning customers away from chicken and beverage rivals is no easy task. Exclusive data provided by Consumer Edge, which tracks bank card transaction data, shows that customers who leave McDonald's mostly go to restaurant brands that focus on these two categories.

Among McDonald's former customer base, Chick-fil-A raised its spending share in limited-service restaurants by 0.58 percentage points year over year in the third quarter, the highest share gain among chains in Consumer Edge's sample. Coffee brands are also absorbing McDonald's customers. Drive-thru-only coffee chain 7 Brew lifted its share by 0.4 percentage points; Starbucks, Dutch Bros and Dunkin' also ranked among the top ten in share gains. Together, these four coffee chains captured an additional 0.88 percentage points of consumer spending share.

In overall consumer spending on limited-service restaurants, McDonald's remains by far the largest single-brand chain, but its own share declined year over year. Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands International's Burger King gained 0.24 percentage points, the highest increase in the burger category.

Michael Gunther, senior vice president at Consumer Edge, said: "Consumers are becoming more selective about how they spend, and brands are fighting over a shrinking pie of restaurant spending." This data set can only partly reflect McDonald's competitive position in the chicken and beverage categories, because the statistics cannot track the specific items customers actually order at the counter. Gunther added: "If McDonald's can retain diners with attractive new products, this strategy can still succeed."

Although McDonald's had previously suffered from weak sales, management said it saw signs of improvement by the end of the third quarter. Materials from the investor day show that McDonald's U.S. same-store sales posted a slight decline in July and August, but the company expects September to turn positive. Consumer Edge data also shows that in September, the year-over-year decline in McDonald's spending share narrowed across all income groups.

Wall Street also has questions about how quickly the chicken-plus-beverage strategy will be implemented. Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said after McDonald's investor day that sales generated by newly launched beverages in the U.S. market are not enough to offset weakness in the overall business, and that the next-generation chicken platform, including hand-breaded chicken and grilled chicken, will arrive later than previously expected.

Gargiulo wrote in a research note: "The scale of investment needed to deliver the 'McDonald's Next' growth plan is larger than we expected and will put additional pressure on near-term earnings." He rates the stock market perform with a $295 price target; the stock closed at about $235 last Friday.