Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NASDAQ:DPZ) reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday, with new CEO Joe Jordan facing his first call as chief executive and a problem to solve: customers are ordering more pizzas but spending less per order.

U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.1% last quarter, while shares have fallen roughly 26% this year.

Wall Street expects earnings of $4.40 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion. On Polymarket, traders give Domino’s a 64% chance of reporting GAAP earnings above $4.43 per share.

Meanwhile, more than $300,000 has been traded on Kalshi contracts predicting what executives will say during the earnings call.

What Kalshi Predicts Domino’s Will Say

“Same Store” leads at 98%. Same-store sales measure revenue growth at existing restaurants, excluding new openings. U.S. growth slowed from 0.9% to just 0.1% last quarter, despite rising order counts.

“Detroit” trades at 83%, while “Parmesan” sits at 67% and “Stuffed Crust” at 65%. All three words relate to Domino’s efforts to attract customers with new and discounted pizzas.

On Aug. 31, Domino’s launched the Domino, a rectangular, single-serving Detroit-style pizza with a crispy Parmesan crust, cut into two squares. Designed to compete with burgers and other fast food, it was available for only the final week of the quarter.

Domino’s also added its Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza to its $9.99 Best Deal Ever promotion over the summer.

The moves follow a disappointing premium-pizza campaign that management blamed for weaker average customer spending last quarter.

“DoorDash” sits at 61%. Then-CEO Russell Weiner said in July that Domino’s believed it had become the leading pizza brand on DoorDash and Uber Eats, estimating roughly half of those orders represented additional business.

“India” trades at 58%. Domino’s Indian franchise operator recently reported 4.1% like-for-like sales growth, up from 2.5% the previous quarter.

What Kalshi Predicts Domino’s Will Skip

“Inflation” trades at 44%. Weiner argued in July that weaker average order values were largely an execution problem within management’s control.

“AI” sits at 38%, despite Domino’s development of an “orchestration agent” designed to coordinate pizza preparation with delivery-driver arrivals.

Reading the Board

CFO Sandeep Reddy made a firm promise in July about the average amount customers spend per order, known as the average ticket.

“We had a one-quarter blip on ticket. We’re not going to have another blip.”

BTIG analyst Peter Saleh warned in July that returning to 1% to 2% sales growth “isn’t exactly spectacular.”

For Jordan, the test is whether Domino’s can increase customer spending without reversing its gains in orders. Another disappointing average ticket would put management’s promise under scrutiny.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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