The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0323 GMT - Malaysia's palm oil inventories are expected to ease in October, supported by an anticipated recovery in exports and stronger domestic consumption ahead of Diwali, Public Investment Bank analyst Chong Hoe Leong says in a note. September stocks rose as production hit a record 2.1 million tons while exports fell to a seven-month low of 1.1 million tons amid stiff competition from Indonesia. However, severe forest fires and haze in Indonesia could disrupt harvesting and reduce output in coming months, he adds. Public IB maintains an overweight rating on Malaysian plantations, pegging Sarawak Plantation and TA Ann as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0255 GMT - Palm oil falls amid cautious sentiment, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Market direction will depend on movements in Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil, Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and crude oil prices, it says. Overall, prices remain vulnerable to further selling pressure, although a rebound could emerge near key support for CPO at 4,608 ringgit a ton, it adds. AmInvestment Bank pegs the resistance level at 4,675 ringgit-4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 42 ringgit at 4,595 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0212 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower amid ample supply. Iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports remain at high levels, with significant volume increases from non-mainstream mines, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures says in a research note. With mining capacity continuing to ramp up, expectations for inventory accumulation are strong, it adds. The iron ore market will likely continue to see strong supply and weak demand in the next month, it adds. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange drops 1.2% to 676.0 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0203 GMT - Copper prices are lower in early Asian trade, with uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy weighing on market sentiment despite tightening concentrate supply, Everbright Futures analysts say in a note. Copper treatment charges have plunged sharply, squeezing smelter margins and pressuring refined copper output, while imports have also weakened, the analysts add. High prices are also curbing restocking appetite, with spot premiums narrowing amid subdued downstream buying, they say. Prices are likely to remain volatile, with the near-term direction hinging on greater clarity over U.S. trade policy, they say. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0200 GMT - Extreme weather exacerbated by the ongoing El Niño episode could further undermine commodity markets, worsening the impact of high fertilizer prices and disrupting other climate-sensitive sectors like transportation, the IMF warns. Past episodes have shown that El Niño typically drives up food and commodity prices while weighing on activity, especially in economies where food is a major share of the consumer basket. Such risks are particularly acute for energy importers, especially emerging and developing economies with limited fiscal space and external buffers. Persistently higher commodity prices could widen current account deficits and intensify exchange-rate pressures. Higher inflation could meanwhile require tighter monetary policy, further dragging growth.(fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0110 GMT - Crude palm oil prices are forecast to range between 4,400 ringgit and 4,600 ringgit a ton over the near term, supported by stronger biodiesel demand and potential supply constraints in 2027, despite elevated inventories, CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang says in a note. Prolonged dry weather linked to El Nino and reduced fertilizer use could weigh on output from 2027, she says. Higher energy prices have improved biodiesel economics, while Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate could support demand, she adds. CIMB maintains an overweight rating on the Malaysian plantation sector, pegging IOI Corp., Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Genting Plantations and Hap Seng Plantations as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0100 GMT - Malaysia's palm oil inventories are expected to decline after October as seasonal production eases and the lagged effects of El Nino weigh on output, says Hong Leong IB analyst Chye Wen Fei in a note. However, CPO prices in the near term are expected to be weighed down by the current seasonal production peak. Hong Leong maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's plantation sector, as it expects elevated CPO prices to be sustained into 2027, driven by tightening supply and resilient demand. It pegs Hap Seng Plantations and IOI Corp. as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0017 GMT - Gold falls in early Asian trade. Investors are mainly in a wait-and-see mode ahead of major U.S. bank earnings and inflation data this week, says Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals in a note. The U.S. CPI data will offer clues about the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. Markets will also parse updates on other U.S. economic data and a heavy slate of Fed speakers to gauge the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes this year, Grant says. Higher rates typically diminish the allure of the non-interest-bearing precious metal.Spot gold is 0.2% lower at $4,163.71 an ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2259 GMT - Whitehaven Coal's bull at Morgan Stanley raises its price target by 6%, to A$8.95/share, highlighting several tailwinds for the miner. "Higher gas prices, constrained Indonesian supply and Indian restocking should support thermal coal," MS says. It estimates thermal coal prices at the Australian port of Newcastle averaged US$155/ton between July and September. MS adds that Chinese mine restrictions are helping to support metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking. Specific to Whitehaven Coal, MS is upbeat about its improving operating performance in Australia's New South Wales state. Strong coal prices are supporting Whitehaven's cash generation and free cash flow yields, MS says. Whitehaven ended Monday at A$7.78. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2210 GMT - Metals X likely needs to raise its offer for U.K.-listed First Tin to get a deal done, suggests Shaw and Partners. Metals X's proposal is worth GBP0.15/share. The Australian miner already owns nearly 30% of First Tin. Analyst Peter Kormendy says the offer price looks light against the 2024 definitive feasibility study for First Tin's Taronga project, which is being updated. "The strategic logic fits our consolidator thesis and the cost is modest relative to current Metals X cash," Shaw says. "Key questions from here are the increase likely needed for a successful outcome, and how Taronga capex sits alongside Rentails FID." Rentails is Metals X's tin project in Tasmania. Shaw has a hold call and A$1.90/share price target on Metals X, which ended Monday at A$2.03. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2155 GMT - Metro Mining's production setback is disappointing, but Shaw & Partners says the investment case is intact. Metro Mining shipped 659,000 tons of bauxite last month. That was about 200,000 less than expected. The difference resulted from a channel collapse that constrained barge capacity. Analyst Andrew Hines now expects Metro Mining to ship 6.2 million tons of bauxite this year. That's below current guidance, which is likely to be downgraded. Still, Shaw views weakness in Metro Mining's share price as a buying opportunity. "Metro Mining is profitable, generating free cash with a strong balance sheet and will finish the year with a cash balance of A$60 million-A$70 million," says Shaw. Its price target falls 13% to A$2.60/share. Metro Mining ended Monday at A$0.88. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2144 GMT - Metro Mining's credibility takes another hit after the bauxite miner misses expectations for September shipments, says Ord Minnett. It says the weaker-than-expected monthly outcome puts annual guidance for shipments out of reach. "Metro Mining would need to average roughly 860,000 tons/month across the final three months of 2026 to hit the bottom end of former guidance" of 6.6 million-7.1 million tons, analyst Matthew Hope says. Ord Minnett thinks 6.2 million-6.4 million tons is a more realistic outcome. Achieving that would require shipment rates of approximately 775,000 tons/month through the December quarter. Ord Minnett retains a buy call but lowers its price target by 30% to A$1.75/share. Metro Mining ended Monday at A$0.88.